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Earthquakes

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One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible after effects.  An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time.  For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other.  Sometimes the movement is gradual.   At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy.  When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free.   If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage.

Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property.  Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihood's of future damaging earthquakes.  Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

The scientific study of earthquakes is comparatively new.  Until the 18th century, few factual descriptions of earthquakes were recorded, and the natural cause of earthquakes was little understood.  Those who did look for natural causes often reached conclusions that seem fanciful today; one popular theory was that earthquakes were caused by air rushing out of caverns deep in the Earth's interior.

The earliest earthquake for which we have descriptive information occurred in China in 1177 B.C.  The Chinese earthquake catalog describes several dozen large earthquakes in China during the next few thousand years.  Earthquakes in Europe are mentioned as early as 580 B.C., but the earliest for which we have some descriptive information occurred in the mid-16th century.  The earliest known earthquakes in the Americas were in Mexico in the late 14th century and in Peru in 1471, but descriptions of the effects were not well documented. By the 17th century, descriptions of the effects of earthquakes were being published around the world - although these accounts were often exaggerated or distorted.

The most widely felt earthquakes in the recorded history of North America were a series that occurred in 1811-1812 near New Madrid, Missouri.  A great earthquake, whose magnitude is estimated to be about 8, occurred on the morning of December 16, 1811.  Another great earthquake occurred on January 23, 1812, and a third, the strongest yet, on February 7, 1812.  Aftershocks were nearly continuous between these great earthquakes and continued for months afterwards.  These earthquakes were felt by people as far away as Boston and Denver.   Because the most intense effects were in a sparsely populated region, the destruction of human life and property was slight.  If just one of these enormous earthquakes occurred in the same area today, millions of people and buildings and other structures worth billions of dollars would be affected.

The San Francisco earthquakes of 1906 was one of the most destructive in the recorded history of North America - the earthquake and the fire that followed killed nearly 700 people and left the city in ruins.

Earthquakes:  1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire
The great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed most of the city and left 250,00 people homeless.


The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, was of greater magnitude than the San Francisco earthquake; it released perhaps twice as much energy and was felt over an area of almost 500,000 square miles.

The ground motion near the epicenter was so violent that the tops of some trees were snapped off.  One hundred and fourteen people (some as far away as California) died as a result of this earthquake, but loss of life and property would have been far greater had Alaska been more densely populated.

The Earth is formed of several layers that have very different physical and chemical properties.  The outer layer, which averages about 70 kilometers in thickness, consists of about a dozen large, irregularly shaped plates that slide over, under and past each other on top of the partly molten inner layer.  Most earthquakes occur at the boundaries where the plates meet.  In fact, the locations of earthquakes and the kinds of ruptures they produce help scientists define the plate boundaries.

There are three types of plate boundaries: spreading zones, transform faults, and subduction zones.  At spreading zones, molten rock rises, pushing two plates apart and adding new material at their edges. Most spreading zones are found in oceans; for example, the North American and Eurasian plates are spreading apart along the mid-Atlantic ridge.  Spreading zones usually have earthquakes at shallow depths (within 30 kilometers of the surface).

Transform faults are found where plates slide past one another.  An example of a transform-fault plate boundary is the San Andreas fault, along the coast of California and northwestern Mexico.  Earthquakes at transform faults tend to occur at shallow depths and form fairly straight linear patterns.

Subduction zones are found where one plate overrides, or subducts, another, pushing it downward into the mantle where it melts.   An example of a subduction-zone plate boundary is found along the northwest coast of the United States, western Canada, and southern Alaska and the Aleutian Islands.   Subduction zones are characterized by deep-ocean trenches, shallow to deep earthquakes, and mountain ranges containing active volcanoes.

Earthquakes can also occur within plates, although plate-boundary earthquakes are much more common.  Less than 10 percent of all earthquakes occur within plate interiors. As plates continue to move and plate boundaries change over geologic time, weakened boundary regions become part of the interiors of the plates.  These zones of weakness within the continents can cause earthquakes in response to stresses that originate at the edges of the plate or in the deeper crust.  The New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812 and the 1886 Charleston earthquake occurred within the North American plate.

How Earthquakes Happen

San Andreas fault

An aerial view of the San Andreas fault in the Carrizo Plain, Central California.

An earthquake is the vibration, sometimes violent, of the Earth's surface that follows a release of energy in the Earth's crust.   This energy can be generated by a sudden dislocation of segments of the crust, by a volcanic eruption, or event by manmade explosions.  Most destructive quakes, however, are caused by dislocations of the crust. The crust may first bend and then, when the stress exceeds the strength of the rocks, break and "snap" to a new position.   In the process of breaking, vibrations called "seismic waves" are generated. These waves travel outward from the source of the earthquake along the surface and through the Earth at varying speeds depending on the material through which they move.   Some of the vibrations are of high enough frequency to be audible, while others are of very low frequency.  These vibrations cause the entire planet to quiver or ring like a bell or tuning fork.

A fault is a fracture in the Earth's crust along which two blocks of the crust have slipped with respect to each other.  Faults are divided into three main groups, depending on how they move. Normal faults occur in response to pulling or tension; the overlying block moves down the dip of the fault plane.   Thrust (reverse) faults occur in response to squeezing or compression; the overlying block moves up the dip of the fault plane.  Strike-slip (lateral) faults occur in response to either type of stress; the blocks move horizontally past one another.   Most faulting along spreading zones is normal, along subduction zones is thrust, and along transform faults is strike-slip.

Geologists have found that earthquakes tend to reoccur along faults, which reflect zones of weakness in the Earth's crust.  Even if a fault zone has recently experienced an earthquake, however, there is no guarantee that all the stress has been relieved. Another earthquake could still occur.  In New Madrid, a great earthquake was followed by a large aftershock within 6 hours on December 6, 1811.  Furthermore, relieving stress along one part of the fault may increase stress in another part; the New Madrid earthquakes in January and February 1812 may have resulted from this phenomenon.

The focal depth of an earthquake is the depth from the Earth's surface to the region where an earthquake's energy originates (the focus).  Earthquakes with focal depths from the surface to about 70 kilometers (43.5 miles) are classified as shallow.  Earthquakes with focal depths from 70 to 300 kilometers (43.5 to 186 miles) are classified as intermediate.  The focus of deep earthquakes may reach depths of more than 700 kilometers (435 miles).  The focuses of most earthquakes are concentrated in the crust and upper mantle.  The depth to the center of the Earth's core is about 6,370 kilometers (3,960 miles), so event the deepest earthquakes originate in relatively shallow parts of the Earth's interior.

The epicenter of an earthquake is the point on the Earth's surface directly above the focus. The location of an earthquake is commonly described by the geographic position of its epicenter and by its focal depth.

Earthquakes beneath the ocean floor sometimes generate immense sea waves or tsunamis (Japan's dread "huge wave"). These waves travel across the ocean at speeds as great as 960 kilometers per hour (597 miles per hour) and may be 15 meters (49 feet) high or higher by the time they reach the shore.   During the 1964 Alaskan earthquake, tsunamis engulfing coastal areas caused most of the destruction at Kodiak, Cordova, and Seward and caused severe damage along the west coast of North America, particularly at Crescent City, California.  Some waves raced across the ocean to the coasts of Japan.

Liquefaction, which happens when loosely packed, water-logged sediments lose their strength in response to strong shaking, causes major damage during earthquakes. During the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, liquefaction of the soils and debris used to fill in a lagoon caused major subsidence, fracturing, and horizontal sliding of the ground surface in the Marina district in San Francisco.

Landslides triggered by earthquakes often cause more destruction than the earthquakes themselves.  During the 1964 Alaska quake, shock-induced landslides devastated the Turnagain Heights residential development and many downtown areas in Anchorage. 

Measuring Earthquakes

The vibrations produced by earthquakes are detected, recorded, and measured by instruments call seismographs.  The zig-zag line made by a seismograph, called a "seismogram," reflects the changing intensity of the vibrations by responding to the motion of the ground surface beneath the instrument.   From the data expressed in seismograms, scientists can determine the time, the epicenter, the focal depth, and the type of faulting of an earthquake and can estimate how much energy was released.

Illustration of earthquake vibration movements through the earth's layers

The two general types of vibrations produced by earthquakes are surface waves, which travel along the Earth's surface, and body waves, which travel through the Earth.  Surface waves usually have the strongest vibrations and probably cause most of the damage done by earthquakes.

Body waves are of two types, compressional and shear.  Both types pass through the Earth's interior from the focus of an earthquake to distant points on the surface, but only compressional waves travel through the Earth's molten core.  Because compressional waves travel at great speeds and ordinarily reach the surface first, they are often called "primary waves" or simply "P" waves. P waves push tiny particles of Earth material directly ahead of them or displace the particles directly behind their line of travel.

Shear waves do not travel as rapidly through the Earth's crust and mantle as do compressional waves, and because they ordinarily reach the surface later, they are called "secondary" or "S" waves.   Instead of affecting material directly behind or ahead of their line of travel, shear waves displace material at right angles to their path and therefore sometimes called "transverse" waves.

The first indication of an earthquake is often a sharp thud, signaling the arrival of compressional waves.  This is followed by the shear waves and then the "ground roll" caused by the surface waves.   A geologist who was at Valdez, Alaska, during the 1964 earthquake described this sequence: The first tremors were hard enough to stop a moving person, and shock waves were immediately noticeable on the surface of the ground. These shock waves continued with a rather long frequency, which gave the observer an impression of a rolling feeling rather than abrupt hard jolts.  After about 1 minute the amplitude or strength of the shock waves increased in intensity and failures in buildings as well as the frozen ground surface began to occur ... After about 3 1/2 minutes the severe shock waves ended and people began to react as could be expected.

The severity of an earthquake can be expressed in several ways.  The magnitude of an earthquake, usually expressed by the Richter Scale, is a measure of the amplitude of the seismic waves.  The moment magnitude of an earthquake is a measure of the amount of energy released - an amount that can be estimated from seismograph readings. The intensity, as expressed by the Modified Mercalli Scale, is a subjective measure that describes how strong a shock was felt at a particular location.

The Richter Scale, named after Dr. Charles F. Richter of the California Institute of Technology, is the best known scale for measuring the magnitude of earthquakes. The scale is logarithmic so that a recording of 7, for example, indicates a disturbance with ground motion 10 times as large as a recording of 6.   A quake of magnitude 2 is the smallest quake normally felt by people.   Earthquakes with a Richter value of 6 or more are commonly considered major; great earthquakes have magnitude of 8 or more on the Richter scale.

The Modified Mercalli Scale expresses the intensity of an earthquake's effects in a given locality in values ranging from I to XII. The most commonly used adaptation covers the range of intensity from the condition of "I -- Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions," to "XII -- Damage total. Lines of sight and level are distorted. Objects thrown upward into the air."  Evaluation of earthquake intensity can be made only after eyewitness reports and results of field investigations are studied and interpreted. The maximum intensity experienced in the Alaska earthquake of 1964 was X; damage from the San Francisco and New Madrid earthquakes reached a maximum intensity of XI.

Earthquakes of large magnitude do not necessarily cause the most intense surface effects. The effect in a given region depends to a large degree on local surface and subsurface geologic conditions.  An area underlain by unstable ground (sand, clay, or other unconsolidated materials), for example, is likely to experience much more noticeable effects than an area equally distant from an earthquake's epicenter but underlain by firm ground such as granite. In general, earthquakes east of the Rocky Mountains affect a much larger area than earthquakes west of the Rockies.

An earthquake's destructiveness depends on many factors.  In addition to magnitude and the local geologic conditions, these factors include the focal depth, the distance from the epicenter, and the design of buildings and other structures.  The extent of damage also depends on the density of population and construction in the area shaken by the quake.

The Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 demonstrated a wide range of effects.  The Santa Cruz mountains suffered little damage from the seismic waves, even though they were close to the epicenter.  The central core of the city of Santa Cruz, about 24 kilometers (15 miles) away from the epicenter, was almost completely destroyed.  More than 80 kilometers (50 miles) away, the cities of San Francisco and Oakland suffered selective but severe damage, including the loss of more than 40 lives.  The greatest destruction occurred in areas where roads and elevated structures were built on stable ground underlain by loose, unconsolidated soils.

The Northridge, California, earthquake of 1994 also produced a wide variety of effects, even over distances of just a few hundred meters.  Some buildings collapsed, while adjacent buildings of similar age and construction remained standing.  Similarly, some highway spans collapsed, while others nearby did not.

Predicting Earthquakes

The goal of earthquake prediction is to give warning of potentially damaging earthquakes early enough to allow appropriate response to the disaster, enabling people to minimize loss of life and property.  The U.S. Geological Survey conducts and supports research on the likelihood of future earthquakes.   This research includes field, laboratory, and theoretical investigations of earthquake mechanisms and fault zones.  A primary goal of earthquake research is to increase the reliability of earthquake probability estimates.  Ultimately, scientists would like to be able to specify a high probability for a specific earthquake on a particular fault within a particular year.  Scientists estimate earthquake probabilities in two ways: by studying the history of large earthquakes in a specific area and the rate at which strain accumulates in the rock.

Scientists study the past frequency of large earthquakes in order to determine the future likelihood of similar large shocks.  For example, if a region has experienced four magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes during 200 years of recorded history, and if these shocks occurred randomly in time, then scientists would assign a 50 percent probability (that is, just as likely to happen as not to happen) to the occurrence of another magnitude 7 or larger quake in the region during the next 50 years.

But in many places, the assumption of random occurrence with time may not be true, because when strain is released along one part of the fault system, it may actually increase on another part.  Four magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquakes and many magnitude 6 - 6.5 shocks occurred in the San Francisco Bay region during the 75 years between 1836 and 1911. For the next 68 years (until 1979), no earthquakes of magnitude 6 or larger occurred in the region. Beginning with a magnitude 6.0 shock in 1979, the earthquake activity in the region increased dramatically; between 1979 and 1989, there were four magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes, including the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake.  This clustering of earthquakes leads scientists to estimate that the probability of a magnitude 6.8 or larger earthquake occurring during the next 30 years in the San Francisco Bay region is about 67 percent (twice as likely as not).

Another way to estimate the likelihood of future earthquakes is to study how fast strain accumulates.  When plate movements build the strain in rocks to a critical level, like pulling a rubber band too tight, the rocks will suddenly break and slip to a new position.  Scientists measure how much strain accumulates along a fault segment each year, how much time has passed since the last earthquake along the segment, and how much strain was released in the last earthquake.  This information is then used to calculate the time required for the accumulating strain to build to the level that results in an earthquake.  This simple model is complicated by the fact that such detailed information about faults is rare.   In the United States, only the San Andreas fault system has adequate records for using this prediction method.

Both of these methods, and a wide array of monitoring techniques, are being tested along part of the San Andres fault.  For the past 150 years, earthquakes of about magnitude 6 have occurred an average of every 22 years on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. The last shock was in 1966.   Because of the consistency and similarity of these earthquakes, scientists have started an experiment to "capture" the next Parkfield earthquake. A dense web of monitoring instruments was deployed in the region during the late 1980s.  The main goals of the ongoing Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment are to record the geophysical signals before and after the expected earthquake; to issue a short-term prediction; and to develop effective methods of communication between earthquake scientists and community officials responsible for disaster response and mitigation.   This project has already made important contributions to both earth science and public policy.

Scientific understanding of earthquakes is of vital importance to the Nation.  As the population increases, expanding urban development and construction works encroach upon areas susceptible to earthquakes.   With a greater understanding of the causes and effects of earthquakes, we may be able to reduce damage and loss of life from this destructive phenomenon.

How To Handle An Earthquake!

Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently and without warning.  Identifying potential hazards ahead of time and advance planning can reduce the dangers of serious injury or loss of life from an earthquake.

BEFORE

Check for hazards in the home.

Identify safe places in each room.

Locate safe places outdoors.  In the open, away from buildings, trees, telephone and electrical lines, overpasses, or elevated expressways.

Make sure all family members know how to respond after an earthquake.  Teach all family members how and when to turn off gas, electricity, and water.

Teach children how and when to call 9-1-1, police, or fire department and which radio station to tune to for emergency information.

Have disaster supplies on hand.

Develop an emergency communication plan.   In case family members are separated from one another during an earthquake (a real possibility during the day when adults are at work and children are at school), develop a plan for reuniting after the disaster.

Ask an out-of-state relative or friend to serve as the "family contact."  After a disaster, it's often easier to call long distance.  Make sure everyone in the family knows the name, address, and phone number of the contact person.

DURING

If indoors:

If outdoors:

If in a moving vehicle:

Pets after an Earthquake

AFTER

Be prepared for aftershocks.  Although smaller than the main shock, aftershocks cause additional damage and may bring weakened structures down.  Aftershocks can occur in the first hours, days, weeks, or even months after the quake.

Listen to a battery-operated radio or television for the latest emergency information.

Stay out of damaged buildings.  Return home only when authorities say it is safe.

INSPECTING UTILITIES IN A DAMAGED HOME Check for gas leaks--If you smell gas or hear blowing or hissing noise, open a window and quickly leave the building. Turn off the gas at the outside main valve if you can and call the gas company from a neighbor's home.  If you turn off the gas for any reason, it must be turned back on by a professional.

Look for electrical system damage--If you see sparks or broken or frayed wires, or if you smell hot insulation, turn off the electricity at the main fuse box or circuit breaker. If you have to step in water to get to the fuse box or circuit breaker, don't!   Let a professional handle this situation.

Check for sewage and water lines damage--If you suspect sewage lines are damaged, avoid using the toilets and call a plumber.  If water pipes are damaged, contact the water company and avoid using water from the tap.   You can obtain safe water by melting ice cubes.

MITIGATION - Mitigation includes any activities that prevent an emergency, reduce the chance of an emergency happening, or lessen the damaging effects of unavoidable emergencies. Investing in preventive mitigation steps now such as repairing deep plaster cracks in ceilings and foundations, anchoring overhead lighting fixtures to the ceiling and following local seismic building standards, will help reduce the impact of earthquakes in the future.  

TABLE 1 - Frequency of Occurrence of Earthquakes
Based on Observations since 1900

Descriptor Magnitude Average Annually
Great 8 and higher 1
Major 7 - 7.9 18
Strong 6 - 6.9 120
Moderate 5 - 5.9 800
Light 4 - 4.9 6,200 (estimated)
Minor 3 - 3.9 49,000 (estimated)
Very Minor < 3.0 Magnitude 2 - 3: about 1,000 per day
Magnitude 1 - 2: about 8,000 per day

TABLE 2 - Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 1990 - 2000
Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center

Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
 
8.0 to 9.9 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 0 2 0 1
7.0 to 7.9 12 11 23 15 13 22 21 20 14 23 7
6.0 to 6.9 115 105 104 141 161 185 160 125 113 123 71
5.0 to 5.9 1635 1469 1541 1449 1542 1327 1223 1118 979 1106 497
4.0 to 4.9 4493 4372 5196 5034 4544 8140 8794 7938 7303 7042 2930
3.0 to 3.9 2457 2952 4643 4263 5000 5002 4869 4467 5945 5521 1958
2.0 to 2.9 2364 2927 3068 5390 5369 3838 2388 2397 4091 4201 1380
1.0 to 1.9 474 801 887 1177 779 645 295 388 805 715 308
0.1 to 0.9 0 1 2 9 17 19 1 4 10 5 2
No Magnitude 5062 3878 4084 3997 1944 1826 2186 3415 2426 2096 771
 
Total 16612 16516 19548 21476 19371 21007 19938 19872 21688 20832 *7925
 
Estimated
Deaths
51916 2326 3814 10036 1038 7949 419 2907 8928 22711 155

 

TABLE 3 - Number of Earthquakes in the United States for 1990 - 2000
Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center

Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
 
8.0 to 9.9 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
7.0 to 7.9 0 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 + 1 0
6.0 to 6.9 3 6 9 9 5 7 6 6 3 5 6
5.0 to 5.9 72 50 84 69 67 49 109 63 62 52 32
4.0 to 4.9 283 255 404 269 331 355 621 362 411 360 161
3.0 to 3.9 621 701 1713 1115 1543 1050 1042 1072 1053 1388 456
2.0 to 2.9 411 555 996 1007 1194 820 652 759 742 814 349
1.0 to 1.9 1 3 5 7 2 0 0 2 0 0 0
0.1 to 0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
No Magnitude 877 599 368 457 444 444 375 575 508 381 174
 
Total 2268 2170 3581 2933 3587 2725 2807 2839 2779 3003 *1178
 
Estimated
Deaths
0 2 3 2 60 1 0 0 0 0 0

 

TABLE 4 - Magnitude vs. Ground Motion and Energy

Magnitude
Change
Ground Motion Change
(Displacement)
Energy
Change
1.0 10.0 times about 32 times
0.5 3.2 times about 5.5 times
0.3 2.0 times about 3 times
0.1 1.3 times about 1.4 times

TABLE 4 shows, for example, that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake produces 10 times more ground motion that a magnitude 6.2 earthquake, but it releases about 32 times more energy. The energy release best indicates the destructive power of an earthquake.

Another example:
How much bigger is a magnitude 9.7 earthquake than a 6.8 earthquake?

A magnitude 9.7 earthquake is 794 times BIGGER on a seismogram than a magnitude 6.8 earthquake.  The magnitude scale is logarithmic, so

       (10**9.7)/(10**6.8) = (5.01*10**9)/(6.31*10**6) = .794*10**3 = 794
                                      OR
   = 10**(9.7-6.8) = 10**2.9 = 794.328
      
Another way to get about the same answer without using a calculator is that since 1 unit of magnitude is 10 times the amplitude on a seismogram and 0.1 unit of magnitude is about 1.3 times the amplitude, we can get,

10 * 10 * 10 / 1.3 = 769 times [not exact, but a decent approximation]

The magnitude scale is really comparing amplitudes of waves on a seismogram, not the STRENGTH (energy) of the quakes.  So, a magnitude 9.7 is 794 times bigger than a 6.8 quake as measured on seismograms, but the 9.7 quake is about 23,000 times STRONGER than the 6.8!  Since it is really the energy or strength that knocks down buildings, this is really the more important comparison.   This means that it would take about 23,000 quakes of magnitude 6.8 to equal the energy released by one magnitude 9.7 event.  Here's how we get that number:

One whole unit of magnitude represents approximately 32 times (actually 10**1.5 times) the energy, based on a long-standing empirical formula that says log(E) is proportional to 1.5M, where E is energy and M is magnitude.  This means that a change of 0.1 in magnitude is about 1.4 times the energy release.  Therefore, using the shortcut shown earlier for the amplitude calculation, the energy is,


32 * 32 * 32 / 1.4 = 23,405 or about 23,000

The actual formula would be:


	(10**1.5)**9.7)/((10**1.5)**6.8)

	= 10**(1.5*(9.7-6.8)) = 10**(1.5*2.9) = 22,387

This explains why big quakes are so much more devastating than small ones.  The amplitude ("size") differences are big enough, but the energy ("strength") differences are huge.  The amplitude numbers are neater and a little easier to explain, which is why those are used more often in publications. But it's the energy that does the damage.

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The Devastating Damage of Earthquakes is Pictured Above